Back to all issues
📈Economic Opportunity

Tariffs & Trade Policy

The Trump administration's tariff agenda has reshaped U.S. trade policy and prompted debate over its impact on prices, manufacturing, and alliances

ProgressiveCommon GroundConservative

Areas of Common Ground

Despite partisan divides, most Americans agree on these key points:

  • ✓Fair trade matters—agreements should be honored and enforced
  • ✓China's industrial policy, IP theft, and market access barriers warrant a serious response
  • ✓American manufacturing capability matters for national security and good jobs

+ 5 more areas of agreement below

What's the Challenge?

Since January 2025 the Trump administration has used tariffs more aggressively than any U.S. government in nearly a century: broad-based tariffs on most imports, sharply higher tariffs on China, targeted tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and other sectors, and the threat of new tariffs as a negotiating tool with allies like Canada, Mexico, and the EU. Supporters argue tariffs are needed to revive American manufacturing, reduce dependence on China, and force trading partners to negotiate fairer terms. Critics argue tariffs are taxes paid largely by U.S. importers and consumers, raise costs across the supply chain, invite retaliation, and have not historically restored lost manufacturing jobs. Court challenges to the administration's use of emergency powers to impose tariffs are ongoing. Americans broadly agree trade should be fair and that manufacturing matters—but disagree sharply on whether tariffs are the right tool.

Where Most Americans Agree

Fair trade matters—agreements should be honored and enforced

China's industrial policy, IP theft, and market access barriers warrant a serious response

American manufacturing capability matters for national security and good jobs

Workers and communities hurt by past trade liberalization deserve real support

Supply chains for critical goods (medicines, semiconductors, defense) shouldn't be dangerously concentrated

Trade policy should consider impact on consumers, workers, and farmers—not just one constituency

Long-running trade deficits with strategic rivals deserve scrutiny

Sudden, unpredictable policy changes are hard on businesses and farmers

Source: Chicago Council on Global Affairs Surveys 2024-2025, Pew Research Center

Current Perspectives from Both Sides

Understanding the full debate requires hearing what each side actually argues—not caricatures or strawmen.

Progressive Perspective

  • •Tariffs are largely paid by U.S. importers and passed on to consumers, acting as a regressive tax on working families
  • •Targeting allies with tariffs damages relationships America needs to counter China
  • •Decades of evidence shows tariffs alone don't revive manufacturing—investment, training, and industrial policy do
  • •Farmers and exporters bear the cost of retaliation while bailouts paper over the harm
  • •Using emergency powers to set tariff policy bypasses Congress's constitutional authority over trade
  • •Workers deserve adjustment assistance, training, and worker-power policies—not just tariff walls

Conservative Perspective

  • •Decades of free trade hollowed out American manufacturing and devastated working-class communities
  • •China's mercantilist practices require leverage, not lectures—tariffs are leverage
  • •Tariff threats have already produced new trade concessions and onshoring announcements
  • •National security depends on producing essential goods domestically
  • •The cost of cheap imports has been paid by American workers for forty years; rebalancing has trade-offs but is overdue
  • •America has the largest consumer market in the world and should use that leverage in negotiations

These represent current talking points from each side of the political spectrum. Understanding both perspectives is essential for productive dialogue.

Evidence-Based Facts

Economic studies of the 2018-2019 tariffs found the cost was paid largely by U.S. importers and consumers, with limited evidence of foreign exporters absorbing the increase

Source: Peer-reviewed research summarized by the National Bureau of Economic Research

The Tax Foundation estimates that the 2025 tariff measures, if sustained, would reduce U.S. GDP by roughly 0.8% and household after-tax income by about $1,200 on average

Source: Tax Foundation tariff tracker

The U.S. goods trade deficit with China narrowed from its peak but remains large; manufacturing employment has been roughly flat-to-slightly-down since 2019

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Bureau of Labor Statistics

Federal court challenges to the administration's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) for broad tariffs are pending; lower court rulings have been mixed

Source: Congressional Research Service

The federal government provided multi-billion-dollar payments to farmers harmed by retaliatory tariffs during the 2018-2019 trade war

Source: USDA, GAO reports

Learn More

Questions for Thoughtful Debate

❓

Can tariffs actually rebuild U.S. manufacturing, or do they mainly raise prices for consumers?

❓

Should Congress reclaim its constitutional authority over trade, or are emergency tariff powers appropriate?

❓

How should the U.S. respond to China's industrial policy without harming American workers and farmers?

❓

What's the right balance between protecting strategic industries and avoiding broad consumer price increases?

❓

Are bilateral tariff deals more effective than multilateral trade agreements?

❓

How should the government help workers and communities hit by either trade or trade restrictions?

Discussion

Sign in to join the conversation